This graph shows the relationship between the number of fires and the NINO4 index in the previous month(s) for the Tengah Kalimantan province. The four colors mark the thresholds of interest chosen for NINO4 and the number of fires. To determine the risk of fire activity 1 month(s) later, use the value of the NINO4 index in May, June, July, August, or September, and find the estimated number of fires corresponding to that NINO4 level. Past and current values for the NINO4 index can be found through the graph above.
The decision matrix represents the number of points in each of the four quadrants defined by the color code. The decision matrix can be used to identify the probability of having above- or below- median fire values respective to the NINO4 index.
Data: Monthly indices representative of the NINO 4 region
Data Source: National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center, Climate Modeling Branch
Reference: Reynolds, R.W., N.A. Rayner, T.M. Smith, D.C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An Improved In Situ and Satellite SST Analysis for Climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625
Data: Monthly number of fires in Kalimantan provinces, province-wide
Data Source: The data were acquired by the South Sumatra Forest Fire Management Project (SSFFMP) and the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA)-in collaboration with the Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia and collected by the Bogor Agricultural University National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center, Climate Modeling Branch