Exploratory Predictive Tool for Fire Activity in the Kalimantan Region, IndonesiaBy monitoring the NINO4 index of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from April to September, it is possible to estimate the fire activity one to two months in advance. This analysis is based on data from 1998-2006 on fire hotspots (derived from NOAA-AVHRR) and on the NINO4 index. The four graphs that appear further down on this page show the results of this analysis for each of the four Kalimantan provinces in Indonesia. The time series of the NINO4 index (shown in the graph below) is updated every month. Based on its relationship to fire activity, users may view the NINO4 data and forecast 1-2 months ahead whether fire activity is likely to be above or below median levels. |
Monthly NINO4 Index, November 1998 to Present
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Data: Monthly NINO4 index based upon Reynolds and Smith OIv2 sea surface temperature anomalies
Data Period: November 1998 - present Base Period for Climatology: January 1971 - December 2000 Data Source: NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Description: The time series above gives the value of the NINO4 sea surface temperature anomaly index in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (description of NINO4 index) based upon sea surface temperature anomalies in the Reynolds and Smith OIv2 data set (description), with 1971-2000 as the climatological base period. NCEP is an acronym for the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction. |
Predicting Fire Activity 1 Month in Advance
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Predicting Fire Activity 1 Month in Advance:These graphs show the relationship between the number of fires and the NINO4 index in the previous month for the four Kalimantan provinces. The dashed lines mark the median values both for NINO4 and the number of fires. To determine the risk of fire activity in the following month, use the value of the NINO4 index in May, June, July, August, or September, and find the estimated number of fires corresponding to that NINO4 level. Past and current values for the NINO4 index can be found through the graph above. The contingency table (numbers related to n, N, f, and F in the graphs) represents the number of points in each of the four quadrants delineated by the dashed lines. The contingency table can be used to identify the probability of having above- or below-median fire values respective to the NINO4 index. |
Predicting Fire Activity 2 Months in Advance
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Predicting Fire Activity 2 Months in Advance:These graphs show the relationship between the number of fires and the NINO4 index in the previous month for the four Kalimantan provinces. The dashed lines mark the median values both for NINO4 and the number of fires. To determine the risk of fire activity two months later, use the value of the NINO4 index in April, May, June, July, or August, and find the estimated number of fires corresponding to that NINO4 level. Past and current values for the NINO4 index can be found through the graph at the top of the page. The contingency table (numbers related to n, N, f, and F in the graphs) represents the number of points in each of the four quadrants delineated by the dashed lines. The contingency table can be used to identify the probability of having above- or below-median fire values respective to the NINO4 index. |