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| Map Description |
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The map displays mean seasonal forecast according to user's settings. The forecasts of different models can be viewed, with different SST forcing. They actually are a mean of an ensemble of forecasts by the given model. The user is able to choose the variable which can be temperature at 2m or precipitation. Different analysis of those variables are available: the total field or an anomaly relative to a climatology (see reference below). For precipitation, the relative percentage of a seasonal ensemble model median (see reference below) is also available. The default forecasts available are the latest ones, but the user can navigate through different issue times and their associate lead times. Eventually, the user can apply a skill mask which will allow the display of the forecast where the model is skillfull enough only. The user chooses the minimum correlation between 30 years (from 1971 to 2000) of the mean seasonal ensemble model anomalies and University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit database of monthly anomalies. The locations where this minimum correlation is not reached are masked. |
| Dataset Documentation |
Model Outputs
Data Source:
(Forecast Division from IRI)
Base Period: Jan 1971 to Dec 2000
Observations
Data Source:
to be defined
Base Period: Jan 1971 to Dec 2000
Skill Mask
Data:
Mask illustrating areas where the skill of the model is not sufficient. The skill is defined as the correlation of the model outputs with the UEA observations database over 30 years, from 1971 to 2000. The correlations are computed over the ensemble mean of the model anomalies relative to the same time line and are seasonal wise.
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