|This map is a theoretical model based on available long-term climate data. Although it is reasonably accurate, it is not based on actual malaria data and may not reflect the real malaria status. It shows the theoretical suitability of local climatic conditions, and therefore the potential distribution of stable malaria transmission in the average year. Please note that climatic conditions, and therefore malaria transmission, vary substantially from one year to the next. Malaria control activities can also dramatically alter the malaria transmission situation.
Where climate is "suitable" (red = 1), malaria is likely endemic (hypo-, meso-, hyper- or holoendemic). "Suitable" areas may have little or no malaria because of malaria control. Where climate is "unsuitable" (white = 0), malaria is likely epidemic or absent. Some "unsuitable" areas may actually have endemic malaria because of the presence of surface water in an area where there is little or no rain. In the marginally suitable areas (0.1 - 0.9) transmission may occur at steady but low levels (eg eastern Africa), or in strongly seasonal cycles with great inter-annual variation (eg western & southern Africa). [Courtesy of Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA) web page]
Reference: Craig, M. H., R. W. Snow, and D. le Seur, 1999: A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitology Today, 15(3), 105-111.
Data: Monthly precipitation over land areas on a 0.5° x 0.5° lat/lon grid
Base Period for Climatology: 1971-2000
Data Source: University of East Anglia (UEA CRU TS 2.0)