Description:
1. This tool provides various measures of the relative severity of forecast precipitation events for the globe for 1 to 6 days in advance by comparing the current forecast amounts with those made over a 25 year period (1979 to 2004).
2. The tool also provides probabilistic seasonal forecasts of precipitation for the globe, including "predictions in context" (PiC) maps which show regions of the globe which have experienced unusually wet or dry conditions, and where the seasonal forecast indicates an enhanced probability for the continuation or reversal of these conditions in the coming season.
3. A map of climatological monthly precipitation is provided as a reference indicating "normal" precipitation totals for each month of the year.
4. Population and poverty maps are also provided to allow for the examination of the relative exposure to weather events and seasonal precipitation fluctuations.
How to Use this Map Tool
Datasets:
ESRL GFS Six-Day and Daily Precipitation Forecast Maps
Data: Daily ensemble-mean forecast precipitation totals at 2.5° lat/lon resolution from the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF/GFS) model run daily at 00 UTC by the NOAA ESRL PSD Reforecast project
Data Source: U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Physical Sciences Division (PSD), ESRL GFS Reforecast Project
Analyses: Analyses shown here include forecast daily (days 1-6) and six-day precipitation totals, forecast daily and six-day total precipitation anomalies from the 1979-2004 mean, forecast daily and six-day total precipitation as percent of mean monthly total precipitation (1979-2004 base period), and forecast daily and six-day total precipitation percentiles (1979-2004 base period).
IRI Seasonal Precipitation Forecast
Data: Dominant tercile probabilities for seasonal (3-month) precipitation for the first lead time from the IRI Net Assessment Forecast, issued every month at 2.5° lat/lon resolution
Data Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Net Assessment Forecasts, Map Room Forecast page, Data Library entry
IRI Predictions in Context (PiC)
Data: Forecast data: Dominant tercile probabilities for seasonal (3-month) precipitation for the first lead time from the IRI Net Assessment Forecast, issued every month at 2.5° lat/lon resolution; Observational data: CAMS-OPI monthly observed precipitation gridded at 2.5° lat/lon resolution
Data Source: Analysis data: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Predictions in Context, Map Room PiC page, Data Library entry; Forecast data: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Net Assessment Forecasts, Map Room Forecast page, Data Library entry; Observational data: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, CAMS-OPI Precipitation
Analysis: Shaded areas on the "Same Tendency" map indicate locations where the IRI Net Assessment seasonal precipitation forecast for the next 3-month season shows an enhanced likelihood of above-normal (below-normal) precipitation AND where precipitation received in the 3-month season before the forecast was issued was also above-normal (below-normal), i.e., the forecast has the same tendency as the previously observed precipitation. The "Reversed Tendency" map shows locations where the IRI Net Assessment seasonal precipitation forecast for the next 3-month season indicates an enhanced likelihood of above-normal (below-normal) precipitation AND where precipitation received in the 3-month season before the forecast was issued was below-normal (above-normal), i.e., the forecast has the opposite tendency from the previously observed precipitation.
CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation Monthly Climatology
Data: CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) v0703 (March 2007 release) version 2 (merged gauge and satellite estimates) monthly precipitation values at 2.5° lat/lon resolution
Analysis: Monthly precipitation climatology using 1979-2004 base period.
Data Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, CMAP
CIESIN/SEDAC GPWv3 Year 2005 Projected U.N.-Adjusted Population Counts
Data: Number of persons per 2.5 arc-minute grid box, projected for the year 2005, based upon national statistical office estimates of population and adjusted according to U.N. national population estimates, from the CIESIN Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data set
Data Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Socio-Economic Data Center (SEDAC), Gridded Population of the World, Version 3
CIESIN/SEDAC Global Distribution of Poverty, Infant Mortality Rate, Year 2000
Data: Infant mortality rate (number of infant deaths per 10,000 live births) per 0.25° lat/lon grid box, for the year 2000, from the SEDAC Global Distribution of Poverty data set
Data Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Socio-Economic Data Center (SEDAC), Global Distribution of Poverty
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