Historical Probability of Seasonal Average Temperature Tercile Conditioned on ENSO: South Asia

This map shows the historical probability (given in percentile) of seasonal average daily maximum, mean, or minimum temperature falling within the upper (warm), middle (normal), or bottom (cool) one-third ("tercile") of the 1979-2011 historical distribution in South Asia given the state of ENSO (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) during that same season.

Here, the ENSO state for each season is determined by the seasonal average of the NINO3.4 SST index. If the seasonal average NINO3.4 SST index is in the top (bottom) 25% of the historical distribution for the season, the ENSO state is classified as El Niño (La Niña). The ENSO state is Neutral if the NINO3.4 index falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the historical distribution. Use the controls on the page to select the temperature variable, season, temperature tercile category of interest, and ENSO state.

Dataset Documentation

Data Source: Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GSOD station data


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