This map shows the historical probability (given in percentile) of the number of days in a season that daily maximum, mean, or minimum temperature values greater than or less than a user-defined daily threshold will fall within the upper (warm), middle (normal), or bottom (cool) one-third ("tercile") of the 1979-2011 historical frequency distribution in South Asia given the state of ENSO (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) during that same season.
Here, the ENSO state for each season is determined by the seasonal average of the NINO3.4 SST index. If the seasonal average NINO3.4 SST index is in the top (bottom) 25% of the historical distribution for the season, the ENSO state is classified as El Niño (La Niña). The ENSO state is Neutral if the NINO3.4 index falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the historical distribution. Use the controls on the page to select the temperature variable, season, temperature tercile category of interest, the ENSO state, and the threshold information.
Observations
Data Source:
Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GSOD station dataset
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