Malaria Historical Analysis

Climate variables may effect malaria transmission in certain regions. These products aid to determine the historical risk for malaria due to climatic factors.

The maps and charts in this section may aid in forecasting malaria epidemics by helping the user understand the climate risk of their region by:

Studies show that three climatic variables are related to malaria outbreaks. These variables and the range that may increase the risk for malaria transmission are listed below.

References:

Ceccato P., Connor S. J., Jeanne I., Thomson M.C. Application of Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing technologies for assessing and monitoring malaria risk. Parassitologia .47.1 (2005), 81-96.

    This plot shows the time series of a country’s 12-month Weighted Anomaly Standardization Precipitation (WASP) index relative to a baseline period. The purpose of this tool is to provide a simple visual means of relating country-averaged precipitation to a reference period of interest.
    This map shows the number of months suitable for malaria transmission, based on climatological averages. Suitability is defined as the coincidence of precipitation accumulation greater than 80 mm, average temperature between 18°C and 32°C, and relative humidity greater than 60%.
    This map shows the historical probability of seasonal average rainfall falling within the upper (wet), middle (normal), or bottom (dry) one-third ("tercile") of the 1981-current historical distribution in Africa given the state of ENSO (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) during that same season.
    This map shows the historical probability of seasonal temperature falling within the upper (hot), middle (normal), or bottom (cold) one-third ("tercile") of the 1901-2014 historical distribution in Africa given the state of ENSO (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) during that same season.
    This map shows climatic suitability for malaria transmission based on the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa) distribution model.
    El Proyecto de Atlas de Malaria (MAP) ha construido una base de datos mundial y mapas de atlas que muestran los límites spaciales de transmisión de Plasmodium falciparum basados en encuestas de tasas de parásitos, la distribución espacial pronosticada de la endemicidad de malaria de Plasmodium falciparum, y la incertidumbre del modelo para la endemicidad pronosticada.