How well can we predict subseasonal temperature?

These maps show the correlation between the weekly temperature forecast and observed weekly temperature values, depending upon the month of year when the forecast is made and the weekly forecast leads (1 to 4 weeks into the future). THIS MAP PAGE IS CURRENTLY UNDER DEVELOPMENT.

The correlation values range between -1 and +1. A high positive correlation (toward +1) indicates that the forecast and observed temperature tend to co-vary in phase, or in agreement with each other; a high negative correlation (toward -1) indicates that the forecast and observed temperature tend to vary out of phase, or out of agreement with each other.

This skill measure does not give any indication of the bias of the forecast. In other words, even if there is a high positive correlation, the difference between the forecast and observed temperature could still be quite high.

Use the drop-down menus at the top of the page to select the forecast week. Mouse over the map to select the forecast start time from a control that appears just above the map. Select a combination of the forecast start time and the week in the future to produce a map for a target week.

Keep in mind that forecasts beyond one or two weeks are still an area of active research, tend to have low skill, and should be treated with caution.



In order to document SubX data impact and enable continuing support, users of SubX data are expected to acknowledge SubX data and the participating modeling groups. The SubX model output should be referred to as "the SubX data []" and referenced using the SubX DOI: 10.7916/D8PG249H. In publications, users should include a table (referred to below as Table XX) listing the models and institutions that provided model output used in the SubX system, as well as the digital object identifier of publications documenting the models. In addition, an acknowledgment similar to the following should be included in any publication: “We acknowledge the agencies that support the SubX system, and we thank the climate modeling groups (Environment Canada, NASA, NOAA/NCEP, NRL and University of Miami) for producing and making available their model output. NOAA/MAPP, ONR, NASA, NOAA/NWS jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the SubX system.” where “Table XX” in the paper should list the models and modeling groups that provided the SubX data.


Access the dataset used to create this map.

How to use this interactive map

Return to the menu page: Click the blue link called “Forecasts” at the top left corner of the page.


Contact with any technical questions or problems with this Map Room.