These maps show where it is expected to be wetter or drier than average each week for four weeks into the future (select week from menu) for this time of year.
Use the drop-down menu at the top of the page to select the forecast week. Mouse over the map to select the forecast start time from a control that appears just above the map. Select a combination of the forecast start time and the week in the future to produce a map for a target week.
Keep in mind that forecasts beyond one or two weeks are still an area of active research, tend to have low skill, and should be treated with caution. Please see the accompanying subseasonal forecast skill maps for more information.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE FORECASTS ARE EXPERIMENTAL AND ARE NOT AN OFFICIAL IRI FORECAST PRODUCT.
In order to document SubX data impact and enable continuing support, users of SubX data are expected to acknowledge SubX data and the participating modeling groups. The SubX model output should be referred to as "the SubX data [http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.SubX/]" and referenced using the SubX DOI: 10.7916/D8PG249H. In publications, users should include a table (referred to below as Table XX) listing the models and institutions that provided model output used in the SubX system, as well as the digital object identifier of publications documenting the models. In addition, an acknowledgment similar to the following should be included in any publication: “We acknowledge the agencies that support the SubX system, and we thank the climate modeling groups (Environment Canada, NASA, NOAA/NCEP, NRL and University of Miami) for producing and making available their model output. NOAA/MAPP, ONR, NASA, NOAA/NWS jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the SubX system.” where “Table XX” in the paper should list the models and modeling groups that provided the SubX data.
Data: Daily forecast and hindcast precipitation data produced on a weekly basis from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) FIMr1p1 climate model, as part of the SubX experimnetal forecast project. The hindcasts and forecasts from this model include 4 ensemble members each week, and forecast leads extend 32 days into the future. Data are available globally on a 1.0° lat/lon resolution grid. The hindcast period ranges from 1999 to 2017.
Data Source: U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). Along with output from the other SubX models, the data are publicly distributed via the IRI Data Library here: ESRL FIMr1p1. Additional information about the SubX project and the associated forecast models can be found at the SubX Project Website.
Analyses: The analysis shown here is the ESRL-FIMr1p1 forecast ensemble mean, weekly mean precipitation anomaly for each of four weekly forecast leads, for each weekly forecast initialization from August 2017 to present. The climatology used to calculate the anomalies is generated from the 1999-2015 mean of ensemble mean precipitation from the model hindcast.
Return to the menu page: Click the blue link called “Forecasts” at the top left corner of the page.
Contact help@iri.columbia.edu with any technical questions or problems with this Map Room.