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Tercile Probability of the Seasonal Characteristics of Daily Precipitation Conditioned on ENSO

The figure shows the historical probability (given in percentile) of seasonal APHRODITE gridded precipitation average, intensity or frequency, falling within the upper (wet) one-third, middle (normal) one-third, or bottom (dry) one-third ("tercile") of the historical (1951-2007) distribution given the state of ENSO (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) during that same season.

Here, the ENSO state for each season is determined by the seasonal average of the NINO3.4 SST index. If the seasonal average NINO3.4 SST index is in the top (bottom) 25% of the historical distribution for the season, the ENSO state is classified as El Niño (La Niña). The ENSO state is Neutral if the NINO3.4 index falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the historical distribution. Use the controls in the top control bar or on the figure to select daily rainfall seasonal characteristic, the season, ENSO state, and precipitation category of interest.

Dataset Documentation

Precipitation Data: APHRODITE V1101 Monsoon Asia daily gridded precipitation here.

SST Data: Kaplan NINO3.4 index from Kaplan Extended monthly sea surface temperature anomalies here.


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