Forecasts

Seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation.

Please refer to our licensing agreement for permission to use any IRI forecast material. This licensing requirement does not apply to the NMME Forecasts.

Flexible Forecasts
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic temperature seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution.
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution.
Forecasts
Maps of temperature, precipitation and 500mb-geopotential height forecasts from Individual Atmospheric General Circulation Models.
Maps of sea surface temperature scenarii (SST forecasts) used to force the AGCMs.
The seasonal forecast for above-, below- and near-normal precipitation from the IRI.
The seasonal forecast for above-, below- and near-normal temperature from the IRI.
Predictions In Context
Shading on this map identifies regions where there has been below-normal or above-normal precipitation during the previous 12 months AND where the IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for the next 3 months indicates an enhanced likelihood of a reversal of these precipitation conditions.
Shading on this map identifies regions where there has been below-normal or above-normal precipitation during the previous 3 months AND where the IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for the next 3 months indicates an enhanced likelihood of a reversal of these precipitation conditions.
Shading on this map identifies regions where there has been below-normal or above-normal precipitation during the previous 12 months AND where the IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for the next 3 months indicates an enhanced likelihood of a continuation of these precipitation conditions.
Shading on this map identifies regions where there has been below-normal or above-normal precipitation during the previous 3 months AND where the IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for the next 3 months indicates an enhanced likelihood of a continuation of these precipitation conditions.
NMME Forecasts
These maps display anomaly values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
These maps display climatological values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
These maps display anomaly values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
These maps display climatological values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.