Region

Seasonal Forecasts

Seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation.

This maproom displays the IRI seasonal forecasts in both the traditional tercile format as well as a flexible format that enables any quantile of the forecast distribution to be selected. Please see the main IRI Seasonal Forecasts page for detailed information about the NMME-based forecast system. Additional tabs on this page display maps of observed climatological percentile values by season, as well as the forecasts and climatologies of individual NMME models. The Older Forecasts tab contains discontinued products.

Forecasts
Precipitation Flexible Seasonal Forecast
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution.
Temperature Flexible Seasonal Forecast
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic temperature seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution.
Precipitation Terciles Seasonal Forecast
The seasonal forecast for above-, below- and near-normal precipitation from the IRI.
Temperature Terciles Seasonal Forecast
The seasonal forecast for above-, below- and near-normal temperature from the IRI.
Hindcast Skill
Precipitation Seasonal Hindcast Skill
Seasonal skill score based on the historical performance of each calibrated NMME model and their multimodel ensemble (1991-2020).
Temperature Seasonal Hindcast Skill
Seasonal skill score based on the historical performance of each calibrated NMME model and their multimodel ensemble (1991-2020).
Climatological Percentiles
Precipitation Climatological Percentiles
Observed precipitation percentiles.
Temperature Climatological Perentiles
Observed temperature percentiles.
NMME Models
NMME Monthly Anomalies
These maps display anomaly values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
NMME Hindcast Monthly Climatology
These maps display climatological values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
NMME Seasonal Anomalies
These maps display anomaly values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
NMME Hindcast Seasonal Climatology
These maps display climatological values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
Older Forecasts
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast
Maps of sea surface temperature scenarii (SST forecasts) used to force the AGCMs.
Retrospective Precipitation Flexible Seasonal Forecast
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- Retrospectively from January 2011 to March 2017.
Precipitation Flexible Seasonal Forecast (2012-2017)
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- from July 2012 to March 2017
Temperature Flexible Seasonal Forecast (2012-2017)
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic temperature seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- from July 2012 to March 2017
Precipitation Flexible Seasonal Forecast (Feb-Dec 2017)
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- February-December 2017
Temperature Flexible Seasonal Forecast (Feb-Dec 2017)
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic temperature seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- February-December 2017
IRI Seasonal Precipitation Forecast (1997-2017)
The seasonal forecast for above-, below- and near-normal precipitation from the IRI (September 1997 to March 2017).
IRI Seasonal Temperature Forecast (1997-2017)
The seasonal forecast for above-, below- and near-normal temperature from the IRI (December 1997 to March 2017).