NMME Seasonal Anomalies

These maps display anomaly values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.

Use the drop-down menus at the top of the page to select the model, variable, and seasonal lead. Mouse over the map to select the forecast start time from a control that appears just above the map. Select a combination of the forecast start time and the 3-month seasonal lead time to produce a map for a target season of the year. The forecast starts occur at the beginning of a month of the year, and adding together the forecast start time and the lead time (3-month seasonal lead) determines the season for which the forecast is valid.

For example, for a seasonal forecast, the combination of a forecast start time of 0000 1 Sep 2015 and a 3-month seasonal lead of 1.5 months (the first seasonal lead) will produce a forecast map valid for the September-November 2015 3-month season. The combination of a forecast start time of 0000 1 Sep 2015 and a 3-month seasonal lead of 2.5 months (the second seasonal lead) will produce a forecast map valid for the October-December 2015 season. The forecast target time and start time will appear at the bottom of the map.

Acknowledgments

In order to document NMME-Phase II data impact and enable continuing support, users of NMME data are expected to acknowledge NMME data and the participating modeling groups. The NMME model output should be referred to as "the NMME System Phase II data [https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search.html?Project=NMME]." In publications, users should include a table (referred to below as Table XX) listing the models and institutions that provided model output used in the NMME-Phase II system, as well as the digital object identifier of publications documenting the models, where "Table XX" in the paper should list the models and modeling groups that provided the NMME data. In addition, an acknowledgement similar to the following should be included in any publication: "We acknowledge the agencies that support the NMME-Phase II system, and we thank the climate modeling groups (Environment Canada, NASA, NCAR, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/NCEP, and University of Miami) for producing and making available their model output. NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/CTB, and NOAA/CPO jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the NMME-Phase II system." Besides the above acknowledgement, users should register any journal articles (or other scientific documents) that are based on NMME-Phase II results.

References

Kirtman, Ben P., and Coauthors, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; Phase-2 toward developing intraseasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1