Seasonal Forecasts

Seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation.

This maproom displays the IRI seasonal forecasts in both the traditional tercile format as well as a flexible format that enables any quantile of the forecast distribution to be selected. Please see the main IRI Seasonal Forecasts page for detailed information about the NMME-based forecast system. Additional tabs on this page display maps of observed climatological percentile values by season, as well as the forecasts and climatologies of individual NMME models. The Older Forecasts tab contains discontinued products.

Forecasts
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution.
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic temperature seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution.
The seasonal forecast for above-, below- and near-normal precipitation from the IRI.
The seasonal forecast for above-, below- and near-normal temperature from the IRI.
Hindcast Skill
Seasonal skill score based on the historical performance of each calibrated NMME model and their multimodel ensemble (1982-2010).
Seasonal skill score based on the historical performance of each calibrated NMME model and their multimodel ensemble (1982-2010).
Climatological Percentiles
Observed precipitation percentiles.
Observed temperature percentiles.
NMME Models
These maps display anomaly values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
These maps display climatological values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
These maps display anomaly values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
These maps display climatological values of forecast 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation at multiple leads and start times during the year for a selection of climate models. The climatological base period is 1982-2010 for CFSv2, CCSM3, CCSM4, and GFDL-CM2p1 and 1981-2010 for CMC1, CMC2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, and NASA-GMAO.
Older Forecasts
Maps of temperature, precipitation and 500mb-geopotential height forecasts from Individual Atmospheric General Circulation Models.
Maps of sea surface temperature scenarii (SST forecasts) used to force the AGCMs.
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- from February 2017
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic temperature seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- from February 2017
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- from July 2012
This seasonal forecasting system consists of probabilistic temperature seasonal forecasts based on the full estimate of the probability distribution -- from July 2012